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    即使是在美国和中国就贸易赤字和汇率进行争吵时，欧洲已悄悄地取代美国成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。截止今年（2010年）7月，中欧贸易额不仅飙升至3060亿美元(同期的美中贸易额为2430亿美元)，而且中国在进口技术、基础设施方面更加依赖欧洲。大众汽车等欧洲公司在服务中国国内市场方面取得了巨大的成功，大众汽车今年在中国的销量超过了200万辆。根据欧盟理事会外交关系委员会称，中国已经将估计达2.7万亿美元外汇储备中的部分从美元改为欧元。

　　不过，欧洲人对中国经济发展的担忧不及美国的一半。欧洲总体贸易基本上是平衡的，它对其与中国的贸易逆差并不怎么感到担忧(2009年，欧盟与中国的贸易逆差只占GDP的1.1%，美国与中国的贸易逆差占其GDP的1.6%)。由于欧洲的大量就业岗位依赖于国际贸易(出口行业创造的生产总值占了欧盟GDP的55%，而美国只占11%)，欧洲人对与中国贸易往来的恐惧度低于美国。

　　更值得注意的是，欧盟对中国的出口速度正以每年百分之四十九的幅度增长，中国正在大量进口欧洲的基础设施、机械和高端消费品。欧洲公司在应对来自中国的竞争时向更高端商品转移而不是关闭工厂。欧洲的出口商获得了疲软欧元的帮助，这是一个事实，欧元对人民币的汇率今年以来已下跌了百分之十。但许多公司在欧元对人民币升值时也作得相当好，因为它们不光只进行价格方面的竞争。这意味着尽管有争议的人民币美元挂钩可能是一个因素，但它绝对不是唯一因素。

　　China’s New Best Partner

　　Even as Washington and Beijing slug it out over trade deficits and exchange rates, Europe has quietly overtaken America as China’s No. 1 trade partner. Not only did Chinese trade with the EU soar to $306 billion through July of this year—compared with $243 billion of trade with the U.S.—China has also become far more dependent on Europe for importing the technology and infrastructure that underpin its breakneck development. European companies such as Volkswagen, which will sell some 2 million cars in China this year, have scored some of the greatest successes in serving China’s domestic market. China, in turn, has been busy buying up European companies and seaports. Now, according to a new report by the Council on Foreign Relations, it has even begun to shift part of its estimated $2.7 trillion foreign-currency reserves out of dollars and into euros。

　　But the Europeans aren’t half as worried as Americans about ending up in China’s economic death grip. Europe’s overall trade has remained roughly balanced, so its deficit with China (1.1 percent of the EU’s 2009 GDP versus 1.6 percent of America’s) is less of a worry. And with so many European jobs dependent on international trade (exports make up 55 percent of the average EU country’s GDP compared with just 11 percent for the U.S。)， popular trade fears tend to be lower than in the U.S。

　　What’s more, EU exports to China are soaring at an annual rate of 49 percent as China sucks in European infrastructure, machinery, and high-end consumer goods. European companies have managed well against the Chinese competition by shifting into higher-end goods instead of shutting their factory doors: take the textile industry, where Italian firms have successfully specialized in luxury products while Germany’s have moved into the fast-growing sector of high-tech nano-fabrics. The same holds for other industries, from chemicals to construction equipment. It’s true Europe’s exporters are getting help from a weaker euro, down by 10 percent against the yuan this year. But many companies did well even when the euro was soaring, because they compete on more than just price. That suggests that while the controversial yuan-dollar peg might play a role, it’s by no means the only factor。

　　Can Europe translate its economic leverage into political influence? Don’t bet on it. Europe has 27 national capitals without a single foreign policy, and all have been happy to leave it to the U.S. to deal with China’s strategic ambitions. America’s own poor track record in influencing China, even when Beijing was utterly dependent on U.S. consumption for its growth, shows the limits of translating economic ties into political influence。

（来源：新闻周刊  20100925）

责任编辑：小峰